Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Finland · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (11%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Belarus 1-0 Finland
Original prediction
Finland
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 18:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.09 | 22.9% | 29.6% | 6.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.16 | 29.6% | 28.7% | -0.9 pts |
| Away | 1.97 | 47.5% | 41.6% | -5.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Finland
Probability
41.6%
Model confidence
41.6%
Finland has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BelarusWDLDW
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
FinlandWDWLL
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
BelarusFinland
44.4Attack100.0
77.8Defence88.9
44.4Form77.8
53.3Power82.2
1.08xG1.31