Beitar Nahariyavs
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
COMPLETEDIsrael · Liga Alef · 10/9/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Beitar Nahariya · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Beitar Nahariya 1-1 Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
Original prediction
Beitar Nahariya
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 06:34 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.70 | 53.2% | 45.0% | -8.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.58 | 25.2% | 27.6% | 2.5 pts |
| Away | 4.16 | 21.6% | 27.4% | 5.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.58 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Beitar Nahariya
Probability
45.0%
Model confidence
45.0%
Beitar Nahariya has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20