Beitar Nahariyavs
Hapoel Afula
COMPLETEDIsrael · State Cup · 10/26/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Beitar Nahariya · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Beitar Nahariya 1-3 Hapoel Afula
Original prediction
Beitar Nahariya
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 16 October 2026 at 07:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.39 | 26.6% | 38.8% | 12.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.54 | 25.5% | 26.5% | 1.0 pts |
| Away | 1.88 | 47.9% | 34.6% | -13.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–07%
Predicted outcome
Beitar Nahariya
Probability
38.8%
Model confidence
38.8%
Beitar Nahariya has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00