Beitar Jerusalemvs
Maccabi Petah Tikva
COMPLETEDIsrael · Ligat Ha'al · 9/15/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Maccabi Petah Tikva · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Beitar Jerusalem 3-1 Maccabi Petah Tikva
Original prediction
Maccabi Petah Tikva
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 31 August 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.58 | 58.0% | 35.9% | -22.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.91 | 23.5% | 25.3% | 1.9 pts |
| Away | 4.95 | 18.5% | 38.8% | 20.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
20.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
Maccabi Petah Tikva
Probability
38.8%
Model confidence
38.8%
Maccabi Petah Tikva has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00