Beira-Marvs
CF Os Belenenses
COMPLETEDPortugal · Taça de Portugal · 9/19/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
CF Os Belenenses · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Beira-Mar 0-2 CF Os Belenenses
Original prediction
CF Os Belenenses
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:41 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.11 | 17.6% | 29.3% | 11.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.65 | 24.6% | 26.5% | 1.9 pts |
| Away | 1.56 | 57.8% | 44.1% | -13.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.56 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
CF Os Belenenses
Probability
44.1%
Model confidence
44.1%
CF Os Belenenses has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
GF 14 · GA 3 · avg 2.80/0.60