Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Beşiktaş · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Beşiktaş 4-1 Marseille
Original prediction
Beşiktaş
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 18:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.78 | 53.4% | 48.4% | -5.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.04 | 23.5% | 24.5% | 1.0 pts |
| Away | 4.10 | 23.1% | 27.2% | 4.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.78 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Beşiktaş
Probability
48.4%
Model confidence
48.4%
Beşiktaş has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BeşiktaşWWWLL
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
MarseilleLLLWL
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
BeşiktaşMarseille
44.4Attack64.3
94.4Defence47.6
83.3Form52.4
75.6Power55.4
1.65xG1.17