Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Beşiktaş · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Beşiktaş are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (DWWWW), averaging 2.60 scored and 1.20 conceded, while FC Lugano are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DWDLW), averaging 3.00 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Beşiktaş hold a 63.0-point power-rating edge (84.6 v 21.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 53.6% in the UEFA Europa League, while Beşiktaş holds the strongest overall chance at 54% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 47% BTTS chance and 46% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Beşiktaş
Probability
53.6%
Model confidence
53.6%
Beşiktaş has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 6 · avg 2.60/1.20
GF 15 · GA 9 · avg 3.00/1.80