Super LeagueSuper League
Friday, 17 July 2026Last updated 10:11
Beijing Guoan

Beijing Guoan

Home
DW
11
Full time
Shenyang Urban

Shenyang Urban

Away
D
Beijing Workers' Stadium
GoalVio prediction
45% confidence
Beijing Guoan(45%)
Most likely exact score1-0
Prediction missed— Result: Draw
Win probability
Beijing Guoan
45%
Draw
27%
Shenyang Urban
29%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Beijing Guoan
54
Shenyang Urban
34
Defence
Beijing Guoan
82
Shenyang Urban
66
Momentum
Beijing Guoan
67
Shenyang Urban
33
Danger (xG)
Beijing Guoan
1.35
Shenyang Urban
0.90
Both teams to score
No
Over 2.5 goals
No
xG for (Beijing Guoan)
1.35
avg per match
xG for (Shenyang Urban)
0.90
avg per match
xG against (Beijing Guoan)
0.45
avg per match
xG against (Shenyang Urban)
0.90
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
Beijing GuoanBeijing Guoan
DWWW
Shenyang UrbanShenyang Urban
DLD

Probability breakdown

45% confidence
Beijing Guoan45%
Draw27%
Shenyang Urban29%

Beijing Guoan leads with 45% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

Beijing Guoan head into this in Super League fixture at Beijing Workers' Stadium in mixed form (DW), while Shenyang Urban arrive in mixed form (D). Beijing Guoan have a 50% win rate across their last 2 matches, compared to 0% for Shenyang Urban over 1 games.

Both sides are defensively strong — Beijing Guoan (82/100) and Shenyang Urban (66/100) are both rated highly at the back. The model expects a tight, low-scoring affair with defences on top.

Beijing Guoan have won 3 of their last 4 home fixtures, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game at home. Shenyang Urban have found it tough away from home, failing to win any of their last 2 away matches. They average 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per away game.

The last 1 meetings between these sides have been evenly split, with 1 draw, averaging 2.0 goals per game, both teams scored in 1 of those fixtures.

The GoalVio engine projects Beijing Guoan to win with 45% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 1-0. Win probabilities: Beijing Guoan 4458%, Draw 2665%, Shenyang Urban 2877%. BTTS: No, Over 2.5: No.

Head to head

Beijing Guoan 0Draws 10 Shenyang Urban
Avg goals: 2.0BTTS in 1/1
17 Jul 2026
Beijing Guoan
D11
Shenyang Urban

Recent form

Beijing Guoan

Beijing Guoan

D
vs Shenyang Urban
17 Jul 2026
11
W
vs Shandong Luneng
4 Jul 2026
20
W
vs Wuhan Three Towns
27 Jun 2026
10
W
vs Qingdao Jonoon
15 May 2026
42
Shenyang Urban

Shenyang Urban

D
@ Beijing Guoan
17 Jul 2026
11
L
vs Shandong Luneng
27 Jun 2026
15
D
@ Wuhan Three Towns
16 May 2026
22

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Beijing Guoan vs Shenyang Urban?

GoalVio's model predicts Beijing Guoan to win with 45% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Beijing Guoan vs Shenyang Urban?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-0.

Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Shenyang Urban?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Beijing Guoan vs Shenyang Urban?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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