Beijing Guoanvs
Rizhao Yuqi
COMPLETEDChina · FA Cup · 9/1/2026, 11:35:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Beijing Guoan · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Beijing Guoan 3-1 Rizhao Yuqi
Original prediction
Beijing Guoan
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.15 | 80.2% | 46.4% | -33.8 pts |
| Draw | 6.99 | 13.2% | 23.9% | 10.8 pts |
| Away | 13.73 | 6.7% | 29.7% | 23.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.15 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-33.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Beijing Guoan
Probability
46.4%
Model confidence
46.4%
Beijing Guoan has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 15 · GA 6 · avg 3.00/1.20
GF 4 · GA 2 · avg 0.80/0.40