Beijing Guoanvs
Qingdao Youth Island
COMPLETEDChina · Super League · 10/18/2026, 11:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Beijing Guoan · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (12%), 1-1 (11%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Beijing Guoan 1-0 Qingdao Youth Island
Original prediction
Beijing Guoan
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 12:23 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.39 | 66.4% | 64.7% | -1.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.86 | 19.0% | 19.9% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 6.32 | 14.6% | 15.4% | 0.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.39 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–012%
- 2.1–111%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
Beijing Guoan
Probability
64.7%
Model confidence
64.7%
Beijing Guoan has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 2 · avg 2.00/0.40
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40