Bedford Townvs
Wingate & Finchley
COMPLETEDEngland · FA Cup · 10/3/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bedford Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bedford Town 2-2 Wingate & Finchley
Original prediction
Bedford Town
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:42 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.57 | 57.7% | 43.2% | -14.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.24 | 21.4% | 27.2% | 5.9 pts |
| Away | 4.34 | 20.9% | 29.6% | 8.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.24 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-14.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Bedford Town
Probability
43.2%
Model confidence
43.2%
Bedford Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
GF 11 · GA 9 · avg 2.20/1.80