Bedford Townvs
Hereford
COMPLETEDEngland · National League - North · 9/26/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hereford · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (12%), 0-1 (10%), 1-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bedford Town 1-1 Hereford
Original prediction
Hereford
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.57 | 34.9% | 23.2% | -11.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.50 | 25.7% | 23.6% | -2.1 pts |
| Away | 2.28 | 39.4% | 53.2% | 13.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.50 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–212%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.1–110%
Predicted outcome
Hereford
Probability
53.2%
Model confidence
53.2%
Hereford has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
GF 14 · GA 4 · avg 2.80/0.80