Bedford Townvs
Hednesford Town
COMPLETEDEngland · National League - North · 10/27/2026, 7:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bedford Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bedford Town 1-0 Hednesford Town
Original prediction
Bedford Town
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 13 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.85 | 31.9% | 39.7% | 7.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.50 | 26.0% | 25.4% | -0.6 pts |
| Away | 2.16 | 42.1% | 34.9% | -7.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.85 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Bedford Town
Probability
39.7%
Model confidence
39.7%
Bedford Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80