Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bełchatów · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
Bełchatów are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WWLLD), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Łomża are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WWWDW), averaging 2.40 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Bełchatów hold a 31.1-point power-rating edge (54.7 v 23.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 55.4% in the III Liga - Group 1, while Bełchatów holds the strongest overall chance at 55% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 65% BTTS chance and 67% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Bełchatów
Probability
55.4%
Model confidence
55.4%
Bełchatów has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60
GF 12 · GA 4 · avg 2.40/0.80