Bayern Münchenvs
Union Berlin
COMPLETEDGermany · Bundesliga · 9/18/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bayern München · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 3-1 (9%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bayern München 7-0 Union Berlin
Original prediction
Bayern München
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.05 | 91.8% | 67.3% | -24.4 pts |
| Draw | 17.28 | 5.6% | 17.2% | 11.6 pts |
| Away | 35.87 | 2.7% | 15.4% | 12.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.05 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-24.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.3–19%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Bayern München
Probability
67.3%
Model confidence
67.3%
Bayern München has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 16 · GA 3 · avg 3.20/0.60
GF 10 · GA 16 · avg 2.00/3.20