Bayern Münchenvs
RB Leipzig
COMPLETEDGermany · Bundesliga · 10/17/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bayern München · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bayern München 6-1 RB Leipzig
Original prediction
Bayern München
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 17 September 2026 at 00:25 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.21 | 78.4% | 53.7% | -24.7 pts |
| Draw | 7.65 | 12.4% | 20.7% | 8.3 pts |
| Away | 10.37 | 9.2% | 25.6% | 16.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.21 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-24.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Bayern München
Probability
53.7%
Model confidence
53.7%
Bayern München has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 19 · GA 6 · avg 3.80/1.20
GF 13 · GA 6 · avg 2.60/1.20