Bayern Münchenvs
Arsenal
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Champions League · 10/21/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bayern München · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bayern München 2-2 Arsenal
Original prediction
Bayern München
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 18:15 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.23 | 43.0% | 38.3% | -4.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.75 | 25.6% | 26.2% | 0.6 pts |
| Away | 3.04 | 31.5% | 35.5% | 4.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.75 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–28%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Bayern München
Probability
38.3%
Model confidence
38.3%
Bayern München has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 20 · GA 7 · avg 4.00/1.40
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20