Bayer Leverkusenvs
Union Berlin
COMPLETEDGermany · Bundesliga · 9/5/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bayer Leverkusen · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bayer Leverkusen 4-0 Union Berlin
Original prediction
Bayer Leverkusen
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:16 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.45 | 65.4% | 43.8% | -21.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.89 | 19.4% | 24.5% | 5.1 pts |
| Away | 6.21 | 15.3% | 31.7% | 16.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.45 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-21.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–28%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Bayer Leverkusen
Probability
43.8%
Model confidence
43.8%
Bayer Leverkusen has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40
GF 14 · GA 13 · avg 2.80/2.60