Bayer Leverkusenvs
SC Freiburg
COMPLETEDGermany · Bundesliga · 10/18/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bayer Leverkusen · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 SC Freiburg
Original prediction
Bayer Leverkusen
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 00:25 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.66 | 57.3% | 39.2% | -18.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.34 | 21.9% | 22.6% | 0.7 pts |
| Away | 4.58 | 20.8% | 38.2% | 17.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.66 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-18.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.1–28%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Bayer Leverkusen
Probability
39.2%
Model confidence
39.2%
Bayer Leverkusen has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 5 · avg 2.80/1.00
GF 16 · GA 7 · avg 3.20/1.40