GGOALVIO

World · UEFA Europa League · 10/26/2023, 7:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Bayer Leverkusen · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-0

Highconfidence

Bayer Leverkusen are 5W-0D-0L in their last 5 (WWWWW), averaging 2.80 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Qarabag are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (DWWWW), averaging 2.40 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Bayer Leverkusen hold a 2.3-point power-rating edge (73.5 v 71.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 60.8% in the UEFA Europa League, while Bayer Leverkusen holds the strongest overall chance at 61% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 52% BTTS chance and 56% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Bayer Leverkusen

Probability

60.8%

Model confidence

60.8%

Bayer Leverkusen has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Bayer LeverkusenWWWWW

GF 14 · GA 3 · avg 2.80/0.60

BTTS 3/5O2.5 5/5
QarabagDWWWW

GF 12 · GA 3 · avg 2.40/0.60

BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Bayer LeverkusenQarabag
79.5Attack50.0
66.7Defence100.0
76.9Form66.7
73.5Power71.2
2.07xG0.89
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