Bayer Leverkusenvs
Celje
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Europa League · 9/16/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bayer Leverkusen · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (12%), 3-0 (11%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bayer Leverkusen 2-0 Celje
Original prediction
Bayer Leverkusen
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 06:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.11 | 86.9% | 66.9% | -20.0 pts |
| Draw | 10.90 | 8.9% | 18.3% | 9.5 pts |
| Away | 22.73 | 4.3% | 14.8% | 10.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.11 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-20.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–012%
- 2.3–011%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Bayer Leverkusen
Probability
66.9%
Model confidence
66.9%
Bayer Leverkusen has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 6 · avg 2.80/1.20
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80