Bay FC Wvs
Portland Thorns W
COMPLETEDUSA · NWSL Women · 10/18/2026, 9:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Portland Thorns W · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bay FC W 2-2 Portland Thorns W
Original prediction
Portland Thorns W
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 18:26 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.48 | 36.0% | 31.1% | -4.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.71 | 24.1% | 27.9% | 3.8 pts |
| Away | 2.24 | 39.9% | 41.0% | 1.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.71 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.1–210%
Predicted outcome
Portland Thorns W
Probability
41.0%
Model confidence
41.0%
Portland Thorns W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 12 · avg 1.20/2.40
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80