Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bavois · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bavois 0-1 Luzern II
Original prediction
Bavois
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.69 | 52.8% | 54.3% | 1.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.09 | 21.8% | 22.1% | 0.3 pts |
| Away | 3.50 | 25.5% | 23.6% | -1.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
Bavois
Probability
54.3%
Model confidence
54.3%
Bavois has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BavoisLWLDL
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Luzern IILLDLL
GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
BavoisLuzern II
47.6Attack47.6
61.9Defence38.1
38.1Form19.0
49.6Power36.1
1.99xG1.12