Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Baunatal · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
Baunatal are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (LLLLD), averaging 0.80 scored and 2.40 conceded, while Hornau are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LLDLW), averaging 1.60 scored and 2.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Hornau hold a 3.2-point power-rating edge (29.5 v 32.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 54.7% in the Oberliga - Hessen, while Baunatal holds the strongest overall chance at 55% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 74% BTTS chance and 78% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Baunatal
Probability
54.7%
Model confidence
54.7%
Baunatal has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 12 · avg 0.80/2.40
GF 8 · GA 12 · avg 1.60/2.40