Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Friedberg · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Baunatal are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LDLDW), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Friedberg are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DWWDL), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Friedberg hold a 43.3-point power-rating edge (29.5 v 72.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 10.7% in the Oberliga - Hessen, while Friedberg holds the strongest overall chance at 52% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 64% BTTS chance and 64% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Friedberg
Probability
52.3%
Model confidence
10.7%
Friedberg has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60