Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Friedberg · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Baunatal are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWLWD), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Friedberg are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (LDWWD), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Friedberg hold a 43.3-point power-rating edge (29.5 v 72.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 50.3% in the Oberliga - Hessen, while Friedberg holds the strongest overall chance at 50% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 64% BTTS chance and 64% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Friedberg
Probability
50.3%
Model confidence
50.3%
Friedberg has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00