Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Friedberg · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Baunatal are 0W-1D-2L in their last 3 (LLD), averaging 1.33 scored and 3.00 conceded, while Friedberg are 1W-0D-2L in their last 3 (LWL), averaging 1.67 scored and 2.33 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 6 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Friedberg hold a 43.3-point power-rating edge (29.5 v 72.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 50.3% in the Oberliga - Hessen, while Friedberg holds the strongest overall chance at 50% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 64% BTTS chance and 64% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Friedberg
Probability
50.3%
Model confidence
50.3%
Friedberg has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 1.33/3.00
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.67/2.33