Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fernwald · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Baunatal are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LDLDW), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Fernwald are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LDDWL), averaging 1.00 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Fernwald hold a 19.4-point power-rating edge (29.5 v 48.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 38.8% in the Oberliga - Hessen, while Fernwald holds the strongest overall chance at 39% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 62% BTTS chance and 59% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Fernwald
Probability
38.8%
Model confidence
38.8%
Fernwald has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
GF 5 · GA 11 · avg 1.00/2.20