Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fernwald · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Baunatal are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LWDLD), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Fernwald are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (LDDWD), averaging 0.80 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Fernwald hold a 19.4-point power-rating edge (29.5 v 48.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 38.8% in the Oberliga - Hessen, while Fernwald holds the strongest overall chance at 39% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 62% BTTS chance and 59% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Fernwald
Probability
38.8%
Model confidence
38.8%
Fernwald has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80