Bałtyk Koszalinvs
Unia Swarzędz
COMPLETEDPoland · III Liga - Group 2 · 10/10/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Unia Swarzędz · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bałtyk Koszalin 1-1 Unia Swarzędz
Original prediction
Unia Swarzędz
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 8 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.24 | 27.9% | 34.9% | 7.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.63 | 24.9% | 26.3% | 1.4 pts |
| Away | 1.92 | 47.2% | 38.8% | -8.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.63 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Unia Swarzędz
Probability
38.8%
Model confidence
38.8%
Unia Swarzędz has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
GF 14 · GA 8 · avg 2.80/1.60