Bałtyk Koszalinvs
Gedania Gdansk
COMPLETEDPoland · III Liga - Group 2 · 9/26/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bałtyk Koszalin · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bałtyk Koszalin 3-1 Gedania Gdansk
Original prediction
Bałtyk Koszalin
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 00:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.25 | 39.9% | 39.7% | -0.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.52 | 25.5% | 26.1% | 0.6 pts |
| Away | 2.60 | 34.6% | 34.2% | -0.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.25 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Bałtyk Koszalin
Probability
39.7%
Model confidence
39.7%
Bałtyk Koszalin has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
GF 8 · GA 14 · avg 1.60/2.80