Bath Cityvs
Malvern Town
COMPLETEDEngland · Non League Premier - Southern South · 9/29/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bath City · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (11%), 1-1 (11%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bath City 2-1 Malvern Town
Original prediction
Bath City
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.44 | 63.2% | 61.7% | -1.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.37 | 20.8% | 21.2% | 0.4 pts |
| Away | 5.71 | 15.9% | 17.2% | 1.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.44 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–011%
- 2.1–111%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
Bath City
Probability
61.7%
Model confidence
61.7%
Bath City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
GF 7 · GA 13 · avg 1.40/2.60