Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Smorgon · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
BATE II are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LWLDD), averaging 0.80 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Smorgon are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LLWWD), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Smorgon hold a 9.0-point power-rating edge (30.4 v 39.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 12.1% in the 1. Division, while Smorgon holds the strongest overall chance at 43% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 62% BTTS chance and 59% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Smorgon
Probability
43.1%
Model confidence
12.1%
Smorgon has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80