UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League
Thursday, 16 July 2026Last updated 10:05
Bate Borisov

Bate Borisov

Home
DD
00
Full time
AF Elbasani

AF Elbasani

Away
DD
Mehdi Huseynzade Stadium
GoalVio prediction
Too close to call
No clear favourite

The model sees this as an open match — all three outcomes are within a tight range.

AF Elbasani36%
Bate Borisov35%
Draw29%
Most likely exact score1-0
Prediction missed— Result: Draw
Win probability
Bate Borisov
35%
Draw
29%
AF Elbasani
36%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Bate Borisov
18
AF Elbasani
18
Defence
Bate Borisov
82
AF Elbasani
82
Momentum
Bate Borisov
33
AF Elbasani
33
Danger (xG)
Bate Borisov
0.45
AF Elbasani
0.45
Both teams to score
No
Over 2.5 goals
No
xG for (Bate Borisov)
0.45
avg per match
xG for (AF Elbasani)
0.45
avg per match
xG against (Bate Borisov)
0.45
avg per match
xG against (AF Elbasani)
0.45
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
Bate BorisovBate Borisov
DDLLL
AF ElbasaniAF Elbasani
DD

Probability breakdown

37% confidence
Bate Borisov35%
Draw29%
AF Elbasani36%

AF Elbasani leads with 36% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

Bate Borisov head into this in UEFA Europa Conference League fixture at Mehdi Huseynzade Stadium in mixed form (DD), while AF Elbasani arrive in mixed form (DD). Bate Borisov have a 0% win rate across their last 2 matches, compared to 0% for AF Elbasani over 2 games.

Both sides are defensively strong — Bate Borisov (82/100) and AF Elbasani (82/100) are both rated highly at the back. The model expects a tight, low-scoring affair with defences on top.

Bate Borisov have struggled at home recently, failing to win any of their last 3 home games. They average 0.7 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per home match. AF Elbasani have found it tough away from home, failing to win any of their last 1 away matches. They average 0.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded per away game.

The last 2 meetings between these sides have been evenly split, with 2 draws, averaging 1.0 goals per game, both teams scored in 1 of those fixtures.

The GoalVio engine projects Bate Borisov to win with 37% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 1-0. Win probabilities: Bate Borisov 3536%, Draw 2856%, AF Elbasani 3608%. BTTS: No, Over 2.5: No.

Head to head

Bate Borisov 0Draws 20 AF Elbasani
Avg goals: 1.0BTTS in 1/2
16 Jul 2026
Bate Borisov
D00
AF Elbasani
7 Jul 2026
Bate Borisov
D11
AF Elbasani

Recent form

Bate Borisov

Bate Borisov

D
vs AF Elbasani
16 Jul 2026
00
D
@ AF Elbasani
7 Jul 2026
11
L
vs FC Gomel
2 Jul 2026
01
L
@ Torpedo Zhodino
27 Jun 2026
03
L
vs Arsenal
21 Jun 2026
23
AF Elbasani

AF Elbasani

D
@ Bate Borisov
16 Jul 2026
00
D
vs Bate Borisov
7 Jul 2026
11

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Bate Borisov vs AF Elbasani?

GoalVio's model predicts Bate Borisov to win with 37% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Bate Borisov vs AF Elbasani?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-0.

Will both teams score in Bate Borisov vs AF Elbasani?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Bate Borisov vs AF Elbasani?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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