Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Bastia 0-0 Orleans, with an exact score probability of 24%.
Prediction record
Final result
Bastia 1-1 Orleans
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 16:33 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.19 | 41.6% | 36.7% | -5.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.18 | 28.6% | 32.3% | 3.7 pts |
| Away | 3.06 | 29.7% | 31.0% | 1.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.18 · Draw 2.18 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.7 pts
Projected Score
Bastia 0–0 Orleans
Exact score probability: 24%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
32.3%
Model confidence
36.7%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BastiaLDWLW
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
OrleansDLLDL
GF 1 · GA 8 · avg 0.20/1.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
BastiaOrleans
25.0Attack25.0
58.3Defence58.3
41.7Form33.3
44.7Power40.4
0.80xG0.66