Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bastia · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Bastia 0-0 Amiens, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Bastia 0-3 Amiens
Original prediction
Bastia
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:15 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.02 | 44.9% | 38.7% | -6.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.14 | 28.9% | 30.5% | 1.6 pts |
| Away | 3.46 | 26.2% | 30.8% | 4.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.2 pts
Projected Score
Bastia 0–0 Amiens
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Bastia
Probability
38.7%
Model confidence
38.7%
Bastia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BastiaWLWLD
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
AmiensWLLDW
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
BastiaAmiens
33.3Attack25.0
58.3Defence83.3
50.0Form33.3
50.3Power47.1
0.97xG0.86