Basingstoke Townvs
Plymouth Parkway
COMPLETEDEngland · Non League Premier - Southern South · 10/24/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Plymouth Parkway · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (10%), 1-2 (10%), 0-3 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Basingstoke Town 2-0 Plymouth Parkway
Original prediction
Plymouth Parkway
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.94 | 30.7% | 21.4% | -9.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.62 | 25.0% | 21.6% | -3.3 pts |
| Away | 2.04 | 44.3% | 57.0% | 12.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–210%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–39%
Predicted outcome
Plymouth Parkway
Probability
57.0%
Model confidence
57.0%
Plymouth Parkway has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 12 · avg 1.20/2.40
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20