GGOALVIO

England · Non League Premier - Southern South · 4/26/2025, 2:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Merthyr Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-2

Highconfidence

Basingstoke Town are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (WDLLD), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Merthyr Town are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WWLLD), averaging 1.60 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Merthyr Town hold a 35.7-point power-rating edge (21.5 v 57.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 55.9% in the Non League Premier - Southern South, while Merthyr Town holds the strongest overall chance at 56% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 68% BTTS chance and 71% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Merthyr Town

Probability

55.9%

Model confidence

55.9%

Merthyr Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Basingstoke TownWDLLD

GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80

BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
Merthyr TownWWLLD

GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80

BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
Basingstoke TownMerthyr Town
50.0Attack67.5
0.0Defence53.2
0.0Form53.2
21.5Power57.2
1.38xG2.39
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