Basingstoke Townvs
Malvern Town
COMPLETEDEngland · Non League Premier - Southern South · 10/10/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Basingstoke Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 3-1 (8%), 1-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Basingstoke Town 4-1 Malvern Town
Original prediction
Basingstoke Town
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.88 | 48.2% | 54.9% | 6.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.76 | 24.1% | 21.8% | -2.3 pts |
| Away | 3.28 | 27.7% | 23.3% | -4.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.88 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.3–18%
- 3.1–17%
Predicted outcome
Basingstoke Town
Probability
54.9%
Model confidence
54.9%
Basingstoke Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20
GF 7 · GA 14 · avg 1.40/2.80