Basingstoke Townvs
Gosport Borough
COMPLETEDEngland · Non League Premier - Southern South · 9/19/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Basingstoke Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Basingstoke Town 1-1 Gosport Borough
Original prediction
Basingstoke Town
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 8 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.12 | 42.7% | 39.1% | -3.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.51 | 25.8% | 24.6% | -1.1 pts |
| Away | 2.87 | 31.5% | 36.2% | 4.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.51 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Basingstoke Town
Probability
39.1%
Model confidence
39.1%
Basingstoke Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60