Bashkimi Kumanovovs
Vardar Skopje
COMPLETEDMacedonia · First League · 9/12/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Vardar Skopje · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (14%), 0-1 (14%), 1-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bashkimi Kumanovo 3-3 Vardar Skopje
Original prediction
Vardar Skopje
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 13.33 | 6.8% | 14.0% | 7.1 pts |
| Draw | 6.79 | 13.4% | 20.0% | 6.7 pts |
| Away | 1.14 | 79.8% | 66.0% | -13.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 5.79 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–214%
- 2.0–114%
- 3.1–111%
Predicted outcome
Vardar Skopje
Probability
66.0%
Model confidence
66.0%
Vardar Skopje has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
GF 12 · GA 3 · avg 2.40/0.60