Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Basel W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 3-1
Basel W are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LWLWW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Thun W are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LLWWL), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Basel W hold a 53.4-point power-rating edge (86.5 v 33.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 3-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 51.0% in the AXA Women’s Super League, while Basel W holds the strongest overall chance at 51% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 65% BTTS chance and 82% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Basel W
Probability
51.0%
Model confidence
51.0%
Basel W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80