Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Basel W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 3-1
Basel W are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WWWDW), averaging 2.20 scored and 0.40 conceded, while Thun W are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LLLDD), averaging 0.80 scored and 2.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Basel W hold a 53.4-point power-rating edge (86.5 v 33.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 3-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 51.0% in the AXA Women’s Super League, while Basel W holds the strongest overall chance at 51% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 65% BTTS chance and 82% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Basel W
Probability
51.0%
Model confidence
51.0%
Basel W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 2 · avg 2.20/0.40
GF 4 · GA 12 · avg 0.80/2.40