Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Basel W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 3-1
Basel W are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (LWWDW), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Thun W are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (LDLLL), averaging 1.20 scored and 3.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Basel W hold a 53.4-point power-rating edge (86.5 v 33.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 3-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 51.0% in the AXA Women’s Super League, while Basel W holds the strongest overall chance at 51% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 65% BTTS chance and 82% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Basel W
Probability
51.0%
Model confidence
51.0%
Basel W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00
GF 6 · GA 17 · avg 1.20/3.40