Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Basel W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
Basel W are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (LWWWD), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Aarau W are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (LDLLL), averaging 0.40 scored and 2.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Basel W hold a 73.3-point power-rating edge (86.5 v 13.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 45.9% in the AXA Women’s Super League, while Basel W holds the strongest overall chance at 46% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 62% BTTS chance and 70% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Basel W
Probability
45.9%
Model confidence
45.9%
Basel W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
GF 2 · GA 12 · avg 0.40/2.40