Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Basel W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
Basel W are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WDWWW), averaging 2.80 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Aarau W are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (LWDWW), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Basel W hold a 73.3-point power-rating edge (86.5 v 13.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 45.9% in the AXA Women’s Super League, while Basel W holds the strongest overall chance at 46% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 62% BTTS chance and 70% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Basel W
Probability
45.9%
Model confidence
45.9%
Basel W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 5 · avg 2.80/1.00
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20