Basconiavs
Portugalete
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 · 10/25/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Basconia · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Basconia 2-2 Portugalete
Original prediction
Basconia
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 19:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.15 | 41.8% | 38.4% | -3.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.39 | 26.6% | 29.1% | 2.6 pts |
| Away | 2.85 | 31.6% | 32.5% | 0.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.39 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Basconia
Probability
38.4%
Model confidence
38.4%
Basconia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40