Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Basconia · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Basconia 1-1 Llanera
Original prediction
Basconia
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 17:25 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.67 | 54.3% | 42.6% | -11.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.73 | 24.2% | 26.9% | 2.7 pts |
| Away | 4.21 | 21.5% | 30.6% | 9.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.73 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Basconia
Probability
42.6%
Model confidence
42.6%
Basconia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BasconiaWDWLD
GF 11 · GA 10 · avg 2.20/2.00
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
LlaneraWLLLD
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
BasconiaLlanera
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power53.0
1.68xG1.45