Basconiavs
Atlético Astorga
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 · 9/13/2026, 10:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Basconia · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Basconia 3-2 Atlético Astorga
Original prediction
Basconia
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.72 | 51.6% | 41.7% | -9.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.52 | 25.3% | 28.6% | 3.3 pts |
| Away | 3.86 | 23.1% | 29.6% | 6.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.72 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Basconia
Probability
41.7%
Model confidence
41.7%
Basconia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60
GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 0.60/0.80