Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Basconia · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (9%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Basconia 2-2 Arosa
Original prediction
Basconia
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.74 | 52.0% | 41.6% | -10.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.69 | 24.5% | 27.8% | 3.3 pts |
| Away | 3.85 | 23.5% | 30.6% | 7.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.69 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–09%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Basconia
Probability
41.6%
Model confidence
41.6%
Basconia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BasconiaWLDLW
GF 13 · GA 10 · avg 2.60/2.00
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
ArosaLDWL
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.25/2.00
BTTS 2/4O2.5 3/4
BasconiaArosa
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
1.39xG1.19